A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
