Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
